ASEAN-6 (Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines)’s business to consumer (B2C) e-commerce export revenue for is expected to reach $30.4 billion in 2028, a report commissioned by Amazon Global Selling showed Wednesday.

According to the report conducted by Access Partnership and commissioned by Amazon Global Selling, assuming the current pace of e-commerce adoption and export, the e-commerce export value for ASEAN-6 was estimated to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10 percent from 2023.

“This marginally outstrips the growth of the global e-commerce market over the next five years,” said the report.

Looking ahead, micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) are expected to capture 48 percent of this value.

Meanwhile, ASEAN-6’s B2C e-commerce export revenue was estimated at $18.9 billion in 2023, with MSMEs accounting for 38 percent of this total.

Malaysia was seen to lead the ASEAN-6 with a revenue of $4.6 billion in 2023.

The country’s relatively high B2C e-commerce export revenue can be attributed to its large manufacturing sector, a considerable share of consumer goods in its manufacturing mix (particularly furniture and apparel), and a relatively high propensity to export made possible by a combination of efficient urban logistics, reduced foreign language barriers (with English being a commonly spoken language), and rapidly growing digital payments penetration rate expected to reach from 61 percent in 2023 to 88 percent in 2028.

Vietnam was also projected to lead the region with a revenue of $3.6 billion. This is a result of its particularly strong foothold in consumer electronics manufacturing and exports.

On the other hand, Singapore’s relatively small estimate of $1.3 billion for B2C e-commerce export revenue despite being
an export powerhouse can be attributed to its fewer firms engaging in B2C exports linked to its smaller population, as well as the fact that its manufacturing sector focuses primarily on business-to-business (B2B) related goods such as semiconductors and chemicals.

Despite having the largest e-commerce gross merchandise value (GMV) in the region, Indonesia lags behind at $3.1 billion when it comes to B2C e-commerce export revenue because of its low rates of export participation.

Notably, Indonesia has one of the lowest export-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratios among the ASEAN-6 countries.

Separately, while the Philippines has a sizable domestic e-commerce market with a gross merchandise value (GMV) of $16 billion in 2023 — comparable to that of Vietnam — its low B2C export revenue ($0.3 billion) can be attributed to its relatively low export participation rates.

One key factor contributing to this is the high cost of logistics, which drives up operational costs and makes exports from the Philippines less competitive, said the report.

According to the report, MSMEs believe e-commerce is crucial for enabling exports, with 90 percent of MSMEs in ASEAN-6 agreeing that they would not have been able to export without e-commerce.

Moreover, MSMEs are optimistic about the future, with 65 percent of MSMEs expecting a growth of over 20 percent in their B2C e-commerce sales in the next five years.

46 percent of MSMEs stated that over half of their B2C e-commerce sales today came from overseas markets.

Overall, ASEAN-6 MSMEs prioritize China, the United States, Japan, and intra-Southeast Asia exports today and in the next five years.

This is largely aligned with ASEAN’s broader trade statistics, with the four markets accounting for nearly 60 percent of total exports from ASEAN countries.

Moreover, China, the US, and Japan are the top three e-commerce markets by revenue globally and thus form likely candidates to drive e-commerce demand for consumer goods from ASEAN-6 as well.

“E-commerce unlocks a world of export possibilities for MSMEs and entrepreneurs by offering direct access to a global customer base and a chance to carve their own path on the international stage,

“Thousands of businesses in Southeast Asia sell their products in Amazon’s U.S. store through Amazon Global Selling, and the number of new sellers in Southeast Asia selling on Amazon.com has increased by 50 percent in 2024 compared to last year,” said Anand Palit, head of Southeast Asia for Amazon Global Selling.

However, according to the report, nine out of ten MSMEs identify a lack of understanding of foreign export regulations and high logistics costs as their primary obstacles.

90 percent of MSMEs agree that lack of knowledge of e-commerce import regulations in destination countries impede their ability to export via e-commerce.

The top country MSMEs seek to bridge their gap in the knowledge of e-commerce export regulations is the United States.

According to the report, over 90 percent of MSMEs surveyed agree that government-industry partnerships could help them better navigate foreign markets, while 92 percent emphasize the importance of online resources for enhancing their e-commerce capabilities.

While the potential for growth in e-commerce exports is significant, the report highlighted the necessity of coordinated efforts to empower MSMEs, ensuring they can fully engage in and benefit from the global digital economy.

The MSME survey was carried out with 700 MSMEs (100 MSMEs each in Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines, and 300 MSMEs in Vietnam) that conduct B2C e-commerce in their operations.

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