How Many Games Could Boston College Football Win This Season?
We're creeping up awfully close to the Boston College football season, and one thing is becoming very clear... Nobody is really sure what to expect from this team. With a new coaching staff, new schemes on both sides of the ball, and an up-and-down schedule, 2024 is shaping up to be a rollercoaster ride from start to finish. So let's try to get our bearings and https://www.bostoncollegeshop.com set some expectations for what we think would be a good firstseason for Bill O'Brien's team, and what we think may actually happen. Note: These will be realistic expectations for BC football. Yes, it is technically possible that BC will go undefeated and win a national championship and also Blake James will hand out free puppies at every home game. But this article will be operating in a more grounded reality.A Brutal StartMonday Sept 2nd Florida StateSaturday Sept 7th vs DuquesneSaturday Sept 14th MissouriThere are only two teams on Boston College's schedule this season that received rankings in the AP preseason poll: 10 Florida State and 11 Mizzou. And lucky for us, BC is playing both of those opponents within the first three weeks of the season. They'll have their home opener against FCS opponent Duquesne squeezed in the middle there, which should be an easy win, but those other two are looking like almost-certain losses. I would bet a lot of money on Boston College starting the season with a 1-2 record.Other ACC teams ranked in the preseason top-25 include 14 Clemson, 19 Miami, 24 NC State, and 7 Notre Dame. The new conference scheduling model really helped out BC this year by letting the Eagles avoid most of the toughest ACC competition.Floor: 1-2Ceiling: 1-2Wrapping Up Out-of-Conference PlaySaturday Sept 21st vs Michigan StateSaturday Sept 28th vs Western KentuckyThe last two games on Boston College's out-of-conference schedule leave a lot more questions than answers. Michigan State has plenty of talented players on their roster, but the MSU program is going through a major upheaval right now after former head coach Mel Tucker was ousted for allegations of sexual harassment. New head coach Jonathan Smith coming in from Oregon State has a track record of building up a program, but nobody knows how long it will take for him to do so in East Lansing. The Spartans went just 4-8 last season in the midst of all of the drama surrounding Mel Tucker and lost a huge portion of their roster to the transfer portal. Smith did a good job of bringing in a lot of players in the portal to replace the departing talent, but it's virtually impossible to know how quickly he will be able to bring cohesion to the program.Western Kentucky, on the other hand, has been a very stable program for the past five seasons under head coach Tyson Helton. Working with multiple offensive coordinators through the years, the Hilltoppers have had a dynamic passing offense that has led them to win at least 8 games in four of the past five seasons, including a 4-1 record in bowl games. Patriots fans may remember that WKU QB Bailey Zappe threw for 6,000 yards and 62 TD passes in 2021. But the WKU defense is not a strong one and is susceptible on the defensive line to the kind of ground-and-pound offense that BC likes to run with Thomas Castellanos and former Hilltopper Kye Robichaux.Either of these games could go either way. If BoB has BC firing on all cylinders early in the season, I wouldn't be completely surprised to see them go 2-0 in these two home games. But the defense especially could very easily fall apart against these opponents, and Boston College is going through a rebuild of their own. I would expect a 1-1 performance during this stretch, and possibly 0-2.Floor: 1-4Most Likely: 2-3Ceiling: 3-2Opening Up the ACC ScheduleSaturday Oct 5th VirginiaThursday Oct 17th Virginia TechFriday Oct 25th vs LouisvilleOnce Boston College gets into their full conference slate, things once again get pretty difficult. Although they didn't make the top-25 rankings officially, Louisville and Virginia Tech were just barely on the outside looking in, receiving the 26th- and 27th-most votes in the preseason AP poll. Virginia, however, is likely going to be the easiest FBS opponent on Boston College's schedule this season. The Cavaliers have won just three ACC games total over the past two seasons, and Boston College defeated them in a close match-up at Alumni Stadium last season that came down to a 4th quarter field goal. So this is very far from a "guaranteed" win, but the Eagles should be favored.Virginia Tech is the darling of college football media this offseason. After thoroughly crushing BC towards the end of 2023, the Hokies played a close game against NC State, and then won their last two of the season by demolishing Virginia and soundly defeating 23 Tulane in the Military Bowl. That end-of-season run under first-year head coach Brent Pry brought VT to an ACC record above .500 for the first time since 2019, and now it has fans and media very optimistic that they are ready to make a jump again this season. Their offense with QB Kyron Drones and his receiving threats looks primed for improvement, while the defense is looking to maintain their top-20 ranking after hitting the transfer portal.Virginia Tech may be a hypothetical ACC threat, but Louisville has proved that they're already on that level. The Cardinals won 10 games last season and played a close ACC Championship Game against Florida State. And now they're adding 7th-year QB Tyler Shough through the transfer portal, who could quickly become one of the ACC's best signal-callers. After watching them disrespect Boston College up and down the field in last season's 56-28 shellacking, it's hard to envision BC enacting their revenge in 2024. So over this three game stretch, the most likely result probably sees Boston College have a 1-2 record. 0-3 is definitely possible, 2-1 is within reach, and 3-0 seems like a pipe dream.Floor: 1-7Most Likely: 3-5Ceiling: 5-3Finishing Out the YearSaturday Nov 9th vs SyracuseSaturday Nov 16th SMUSaturday Nov 23rd vs North CarolinaSaturday Nov 30th vs PittsburghWho knows what Boston College will look like by November? Injuries to key players or the ascendance of unexpected heroes could throw these teams on paths that we never expected. So we'll treat these last few games with a lot more uncertainty.Syracuse has a new head coach this season in Fran Brown, who came over from being the defensive backs coach at Georgia. His hire is an exciting one for Orange fans, given his blue-blood pedigree and talent for recruiting. But us Boston College fans know very well from our recent history that those qualifications do not always translate on the field... That being said, Jeff Hafley did manage to bring BC to a record above .500 in his first year as head coach, and it seems like a very real possibility for Brown to do at Syracuse as well. The Eagles beat the Orange 17-10 last season, but I'll still mark this one as a toss-up in 2024.After forcing SMU to play what was basically a BC home game at Fenway Park last season, now the Eagles must travel to Dallas to play against the Mustangs as one of their newest conference foes. SMU's offense is expected to be dynamic once again in 2024, and unless Dallas gets a downpour like we did in Fenway on that cold December day last year, I would expect the Mustangs to perform a lot better this time around. I'm expecting SMU to be solidly favored in this one, but a BC win is certainly not out of the question.UNC is a very big question mark this season. They lost their star QB Drake Maye to the NFL Draft this offseason, and their defense has new coordinator Geoff Collins because of how badly they supported Maye on the other side of the ball. We have no idea what the UNC offense will look like by November and a defense that could still be mediocre. I'll mark this one as a toss-up, too, though UNC will probably have the edge given how much BC's defense needs to step up this year.Finally, Boston College will close out the 2024 regular season by hosting Pitt in Alumni Stadium. The Panthers were a mess last season, thanks in large part to our old friend Phil Jurkovec. Pitt couldn't figure out their QB position and their offense tanked as a result, while their defense was very disappointing compared to the defenses of years prior. So while the offense tries yet again to find a quarterback, this time it will be junior Nate Yarnell, the defense will try to rebuild a roster that was depleted even further through the transfer portal this summer. I'm expecting Boston College to win this game to close out their season at home. But like I said, it's difficult to predict things this far away, especially against aseasoned head coach like Pat Narduzzi.Overall during this four https://www.bostoncollegeshop.com game stretch, I'd expect BC to win about two games, seeing as these four teams are all roughly around the same level as the Eagles. A bad season would see them win only one game of these four, while a good season could see them win three.The Final TallyAll of that being said, that leaves Boston College with the following expectations:Floor: 2-10Most Likely: 5-7Ceiling: 8-4This seems to check out with the oddsmakers over in Vegas, who gave Boston College a preseason overunder win total of 4.5So what do you think? Is Bill O'Brien primed to turn around the program faster than expected? Or did Jeff Hafley leave the Eagles in a very bad place? Let us know in the comments!