The platform proved its e-commerce mettle during the festive period but risks hitting a roadblock from looming regulatory challenges.

As snow blankets the streets of New York City, adorned with festive Christmas decorations in hues of red and green, the holiday shopping season is in full swing. The period between Thanksgiving and Christmas has long been synonymous with major sales events like Black Friday and Cyber Monday, which wrapped up earlier this December across the US and Europe.

While crowds still bustle through New York’s streets, the shift to online shopping continues to accelerate. According to a Mastercard SpendingPulse report, US retail sales during Black Friday rose by 3.4% this year, with online sales surging 14.6%. In comparison, physical store sales saw a modest 0.7% increase.

Meanwhile, TikTok is emerging as a formidable e-commerce force. The platform, which boasts 170 million monthly active users, reported that its US market sales exceeded USD 100 million on Black Friday alone, according to a poster released by TikTok Shop on November 29. Over the combined period of Black Friday and Cyber Monday, TikTok Shop experienced a 165% year-on-year increase in shoppers.

TikTok Shop’s Black Friday campaign began on November 14 and extended through December 3—a 19-day stretch that outlasted local competitors like Amazon. Notably, this year’s campaign started more than a week earlier than last year, giving TikTok a significant head start in the holiday sales race.

Platform traffic remains a key advantage

Akina, an influencer marketing specialist for a US-based smart home company, has been leveraging TikTok Shop to drive sales since its US launch. Ahead of Black Friday, she focused on collaborations with mid-tier influencers to build exposure, later ramping up advertising efforts during the shopping event to maximize conversions.

This approach—prioritizing influencer marketing and partnering with mid-tier creators before key shopping periods—has become a standard playbook for TikTok Shop merchants. During Black Friday, with the platform and sellers both doubling down on traffic-driving efforts, Akina reported marked improvements in clickthrough and conversion rates for influencer-driven videos.

From the first to the third quarter of the year, Akina managed hundreds of videos with an average conversion rate of about 10%. “That means only 10 out of 100 influencers actually generated sales,” she explained. However, during Black Friday, the conversion rate jumped to 30–40%, boosting her products’ return on investment (ROI) to 8%—nearly double the typical rate.

Shen, a partner at a cross-border e-commerce firm, also capitalized on the surge in Black Friday traffic. By increasing his advertising budget and running continuous 24-hour livestreams, Shen elevated his ROI from a usual 17–20% to 25%. He noted that some platform-supported categories, such as health supplements, deliver profit margins of up to 300%, aided by low return rates of 2–5%. According to Shen, these low return rates are partly due to the underdeveloped US logistics infrastructure, characterized by long delivery chains and high costs.

While Akina represents a well-established local brand, Shen’s cross-border business operates with a more opportunistic model, selling fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) that align with trending demand. However, this reliance on paid traffic limits ROI growth compared to more mature businesses.

TikTok Shop rolled out numerous traffic-incentive initiatives during Black Friday. These included partnerships with major US media outlets and top-tier celebrities, dedicated promotional pages, flash sale channels, exclusive discounts, and live-streaming promotions.

Although live commerce is still in its infancy in the US, TikTok heavily promoted the format during Black Friday through traffic subsidies, significant discount coupons, and algorithmic boosts to improve visibility. According to Statista, live commerce sales in the US are expected to reach USD 50 billion in 2023, with nearly 40% growth projected by 2026. TikTok’s push reflects this trend, aiming to establish itself as a leader in the space.

The platform’s abundant traffic has drawn businesses like Shen’s away from Amazon, where rising advertising costs have squeezed profit margins to as low as 20%. By contrast, Shen’s TikTok Shop in the US enjoys profit margins exceeding 40%. “Even without paid traffic, organic reach alone can drive sales,” Shen said. He has begun hiring additional staff to support more storefronts, believing TikTok’s traffic is too substantial for a single store to fully harness. “It’s like how a popular influencer can create demand for an entire category—smaller players can step in to share the pie,” he said.

For TikTok Shop merchants, the primary strategy during Black Friday was “winning through volume.” Akina’s company, which also operates on Amazon and independent websites, identified TikTok Shop as its most cost-effective channel. For instance, a product priced over USD 400 on its independent website was sold for just over USD 300 on TikTok. Early in the campaign, her company set ROI targets as low as 5% to prioritize sales volume, ultimately achieving 6–8%.

However, not all merchants had a smooth ride. Small sellers faced growing challenges, particularly from rising account suspension rates. One merchant reported losing over 100 accounts in a month, while another expressed frustration during peak Black Friday sales, seeking buyers for tens of thousands of suspended accounts at RMB 4 (USD 0.6) each.

Many smaller merchants rely on tactics such as purchasing accounts and re-uploading videos to generate cross-border sales. Adopting a “get in, get out” mindset, these sellers often focus on quick profits by reediting videos to bypass TikTok’s duplication detection systems.

However, TikTok Shop’s stricter compliance measures have increasingly targeted these practices. According to one cross-border service provider, new entrants to TikTok Shop in the US must navigate a 150-page guideline, much of which details methods to avoid account bans. These include using virtual machines, masking device locations, and carefully editing videos to evade plagiarism flags.

Even with these precautions, account suspensions often occur without warning. Only local store accounts and whitelisted accounts, which comply with platform policies and receive additional support, are considered secure. Demand for whitelisted accounts is high, with prices reaching thousands of dollars, but obtaining them remains a challenge.

Betting big on Black Friday

TikTok Shop’s actions during Black Friday highlight the campaign’s importance in the platform’s e-commerce ambitions. In November, TikTok Shop accelerated merchant recruitment by updating its onboarding policies for the US market. Sellers with local inventory and valid business licenses could now apply without needing operational proof from third-party platforms, lowering the barrier to entry.

At the same time, TikTok began testing a feature that allows creators to add third-party shopping links—such as links to Amazon, Walmart, and CJ—to their content. This feature enables creators to pin shopping links at the top of comment sections on TikTok posts, enhancing visibility. Currently, the feature remains in the testing phase.

TikTok has also deepened its integration with Lemon8, making it possible for users to access Lemon8 directly from TikTok. This marks a shift in traffic dynamics as Lemon8, which has previously relied on TikTok for user acquisition, is now driving traffic back to TikTok. However, some merchants are cautious about Lemon8’s monetization potential and are adopting a wait-and-see approach.

Looking at TikTok Shop’s various efforts, it’s clear that this Black Friday campaign holds great significance for its e-commerce strategy.

On the one hand, TikTok Shop is under pressure to meet its ambitious gross merchandise value (GMV) targets in the US market. According to a report by 36Kr, TikTok e-commerce aims to achieve USD 50 billion in GMV by 2024. Since ramping up its focus on the US last year, the US has become a key growth driver and is expected to account for more than half of TikTok Shop’s GMV.

At the start of this year, Bloomberg reported that TikTok Shop’s annual GMV target for the US market was USD 17.5 billion. By October, however, the platform’s GMV in the US peaked at USD 793 million, adding pressure for a strong year-end performance.

On the other hand, TikTok continues to face the looming risk of a US ban. Although Donald Trump was recently reelected and assured the media that he would not impose a ban on TikTok, uncertainty persists. TikTok’s appeal against a potential ban is still unresolved, and the platform’s deadline to comply with divestiture requirements coincides with Trump’s inauguration day. The reliability of Trump’s assurances also remains in question, leaving TikTok in a precarious position.

Amid these broader challenges, merchants are focusing on immediate opportunities. Most local sellers are diversifying their operations across Amazon and independent platforms rather than fully committing to TikTok Shop. Meanwhile, cross-border merchants are capitalizing on TikTok’s traffic windfall while it lasts, securing gains before the potential regulatory storm arrives.

For many, the risks associated with account suspensions are simply part of the equation. As one cross-border service provider put it bluntly: “If you’re worried about these risks, then the US market isn’t for you.”

#TikTokShop #BlackFridaySales #EcommerceGrowth #InfluencerMarketing #USMarket