As Chinese automakers target ambitious sales, the NEV market braces for tougher competition, policy changes, and global uncertainties.

36Kr has obtained preliminary 2025 sales forecast guidelines for several new energy vehicle (NEV) manufacturers from industry insiders:

• Nio is aiming to double its sales in 2025, according to CEO William Li, a goal corroborated by industry sources. The Onvo brand is expected to contribute approximately 240,000 units. From January to November this year, Nio and Onvo delivered a combined 200,000 vehicles, with total 2024 deliveries projected to reach 230,000 units after year-end promotional efforts.
• Xpeng Motors, having achieved a cumulative 2024 sales volume of 150,000 vehicles, is on track to maintain its December delivery pace of 30,000 units, closing the year with around 180,000 units in total. For 2025, the company targets 350,000 units, nearly doubling its annual deliveries.
• Leapmotor has set a sales target of 500,000 units for 2025. Zhu Jiangming, chairman of Leapmotor, described this figure as the “minimum threshold.” If achieved, Leapmotor will see a 100% year-on-year growth rate for the second consecutive year.
• Li Auto is riding its 2024 momentum, setting a 2025 target of 700,000 units. The automaker has delivered 441,900 vehicles this year as of November, and is expected to reach 500,000 annual sales for the year. Achieving the target in 2025 would signify a 40% increase in sales.
• Huawei’s Harmony Intelligent Mobility Alliance (HIMA) has not disclosed specific sales forecasts but is reportedly planning to offer over ten models for sale next year. Industry insiders speculate that HIMA’s sales forecast could rival or surpass that of Li Auto. Sources also revealed that Richard Yu’s internal plan includes ambitions to approach 1 million vehicles in annual sales.
• BYD has not issued a formal sales forecast either, though market predictions indicate that it could sell around 5.5 million units in 2025, capturing nearly one-third of China’s NEV market.
• Xiaomi, entering its second year of vehicle deliveries, has increased its production capacity and set an initial 2025 sales target of 360,000 units, a substantial leap from its 2024 goal of 130,000 units.

These forecasts serve as preliminary references for automakers and supply chains as they prepare for 2025. Actual performance will depend on real-time adjustments and evolving market conditions.

From January to October 2024, China’s NEV market recorded 9.77 million units in sales, marking a 33% year-on-year increase. National subsidy and vehicle replacement policies implemented in late April added an estimated 1.5 million sales.

The market’s rapid expansion is largely driven by emerging NEV manufacturers. For instance, Xpeng utilized two new models to raise monthly sales from 5,000 units in January to over 30,000 by November. Meanwhile, Li Auto delivered 100,000 vehicles between October and November, surpassing its Q1 total of 80,000 units.

Amid strong consumer enthusiasm, NEV manufacturers are sustaining robust growth momentum, bolstered by preparations for new models and technological advancements that further boost confidence heading into 2025.

The rising popularity of emerging players is expected to significantly reshape market share distribution. In 2024, luxury brands such as BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Audi—collectively referred to as BBA—experienced varying degrees of sales declines in China. Industry insiders predict that these trends may continue, with preliminary forecasts for 2025 suggesting potential sales reductions of 10–15% for Mercedes-Benz and BMW.

According to multiple industry sources consulted by 36Kr, car replacement subsidies are likely to remain in place for 2025. However, with NEV penetration already exceeding 50%, there is speculation that this may be the final year for such subsidies.

2025 is set to be a landmark year for NEVs, with a strong pipeline of new product launches.

Xpeng, which launched two blockbuster models in 2024, reached a milestone monthly sales volume of 30,000 units in November and sold a cumulative 153,300 vehicles during the year. Building on the success of the Mona M03 and P7+ models, Xpeng aims to expand its lineup further in 2025.

In the first half of the year, Xpeng will introduce a B-class SUV built on the P7+ platform, followed by an extended-range C-class SUV in the second half. Upgrades to existing models, including the P7i, G6, and G9, are also planned. Xpeng’s strategy focuses on integrating artificial intelligence-powered cabins and advanced smart driving systems, reinforcing its competitive edge with technologically advanced yet affordably priced vehicles.

Similarly, Xiaomi will continue to prioritize blockbuster product development in 2025. Deliveries of its high-performance SU7 Ultra, priced at RMB 814,900 (USD 114,086), are scheduled to begin in Q1. Xiaomi’s first all-electric SUV is also slated for a Q1 launch, according to Caijing.

Xiaomi targets annual sales of 360,000 vehicles in 2025, translating to an average of 30,000 monthly deliveries. Following the SU7’s March launch, consumer interest has remained robust, with weekly new orders surpassing 5,000 units as of November.

Li Auto plans to prioritize pure electric models in its 2025 lineup. However, supply chain insiders told 36Kr that forecasts for its pure electric series are not overly optimistic, as the company’s extended-range vehicles continue to drive the majority of its sales.

The automaker intends to launch at least two pure electric models in 2025, while its extended-range L-series may receive updates. With an increasing number of extended-range vehicles entering the market next year, competition in this segment is expected to grow, presenting challenges for Li Auto.

Li Auto aims to differentiate itself through innovation in product competitiveness. It plans to become the first automaker to fully deploy “point-to-point” driving assistance capabilities across a broad range of scenarios, positioning this feature as a cornerstone of its smart driving experience. Additionally, the company is investing in enhanced chassis capabilities to further strengthen its competitive edge.

While sales forecasts for emerging NEV companies remain optimistic, competition in China’s automotive market is poised to intensify in 2025, following a plateau phase in 2024. From January to October, NEV sales surged to 9.77 million units, marking a 33% year-on-year increase. However, total passenger car sales posted a modest 1.5% growth over the same period.

Subsidy policies have continued to drive NEV penetration rates higher, but overall passenger car market growth has slowed. Historically, aggressive policy stimulus is often followed by a buffer year to counteract the impact of policy reductions. In 2025, subsidies are expected to be scaled back, with individual vehicle subsidies potentially halved, likely tempering consumer enthusiasm in the automotive market.

Adding to domestic challenges, international political and economic uncertainties could further weigh on China’s NEV market. The imminent return of Donald Trump’s administration in the US may lead to additional tariffs and industrial restrictions targeting China, exacerbating economic uncertainty. Simultaneously, unresolved European Union negotiations on high countervailing duties for Chinese pure electric vehicles could disrupt the global automotive supply chain.

Against this backdrop of unclear policies and shifting international dynamics, pressure on China’s emerging NEV companies is unlikely to ease in the near term.

The luxury automotive market remains one of the most fiercely contested spaces in the industry. Establishing a foothold in this segment signifies an automaker’s mastery of advanced technologies and the ability to leverage brand equity for high profit margins, enhancing overall corporate profitability.

For decades, foreign brands such as the BBA triad have dominated this segment. However, Chinese automakers, long confined to cost-competitive markets, are now making significant strides in this high-stakes arena.

In the first three quarters of 2024, sales for Mercedes-Benz and Audi in China fell by over 10% year-on-year. Secondary luxury brands, including Cadillac, Lexus, and Volvo, also faced varying degrees of decline.

Meanwhile, Chinese automakers have gained substantial ground. The Aito M9, priced at RMB 469,800 (USD 65,772) and above, emerged as the bestseller in the premium segment for vehicles priced over half a million RMB, with 124,700 units sold in 2024. This success highlights a key shift: brand equity alone is no longer sufficient to drive sales, as even luxury buyers increasingly prioritize other factors like technology.

Faced with growing challenges, foreign luxury automakers are undergoing significant transformations to adapt to the evolving market.

In 2025, Audi plans to equip its mainstream Q5L and A5L models with full-scenario smart driving capabilities developed in collaboration with Huawei. Meanwhile, Mercedes-Benz will debut its latest in-car system and full-scenario smart driving features, created in partnership with Chinese autonomous driving companies, on the new CLA model.

By 2026, the BBA automaking trio will enter their respective product supercycles:

• BMW will begin production of its “Neue Klasse” series at its Shenyang plant. The series is expected to introduce a fresh exterior design language and a revamped cockpit system.
• Mercedes-Benz plans to launch pure electric versions of its C-class, E-class, and GLC models, all built on a new all-electric platform. Additionally, the GLE SUV will undergo localization in China to better suit local market demands.
• Audi will roll out a range of new vehicles featuring advanced smart driving technologies and enhanced designs.

Although these efforts lag behind the rapid pace of Chinese brands, the deep technological reserves and enduring brand legacy of the BBA trio continue to make them formidable competitors.

In the third quarter of 2024, Mercedes-Benz reported free cash flow of EUR 2.39 billion (USD 2.5 billion) and net liquidity of EUR 28.73 billion (USD 30.2 billion). This financial strength provides the automaker with significant resilience to navigate market risks and challenges.

In 2025, the automotive industry is set to enter a new phase of product- and technology-driven competition. At the same time, price wars are expected to intensify across the supply chain, making “involution” the defining theme of the year.

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