Singapore’s education system has earned global acclaim, consistently producing students who outperform their peers in international assessments of mathematics, reading, and science. Its rigor and disciplined pedagogy have elevated the nation to the upper echelons of global education. Yet, as Singapore undertakes reforms to embrace inclusivity and personalized learning, a debate around the merits of smaller class sizes has gained traction.

Advocates of smaller classes argue that they improve teacher-student interaction, foster better learning outcomes, and help disadvantaged students. However, in a resource-constrained environment like Singapore, where public investments must yield maximum returns, the evidence demands a closer examination.

The case for smaller classes: Modest gains at high costs

Globally, class-size reduction is among the most expensive educational reforms. The Tennessee STAR experiment in the United States, a seminal study, found that reducing class sizes from 22 to 25 students to 13 to 17 in early grades yielded modest learning gains, equivalent to three additional months of schooling annually. Crucially, these benefits were most pronounced for disadvantaged students and diminished in later grades.

Scaling such interventions comes with steep costs. Smaller class sizes necessitate hiring more teachers and expanding infrastructure. In Tennessee, the cost-benefit ratio was marginal, with a mere 6 percent internal rate of return. In Australia, cutting average class sizes by 30% was projected to increase education budgets by 40 percent.

Singapore, with its careful balancing of public expenditures, already boasts a primary school student-teacher ratio of 15:1 – significantly below the OECD average of 23:1. In secondary school, this ratio drops to around 12 students per teacher.

The incremental gains from further reductions are unlikely to justify the substantial costs. Finland’s education system, lauded for its small classes and inclusivity, spends over 5% of GDP on education – nearly double Singapore’s 2.9 percent. Yet Finnish students do not outperform Singaporeans in international assessments like PISA. Similarly, South Korea achieves top-tier results with primary class sizes exceeding 30, underscoring that teacher quality, curriculum rigor, and cultural factors matter more than class size.

Challenges beyond class sizes

To be sure, Singapore’s education system faces pressing challenges that warrant serious attention.

Firstly, despite stellar results among students, literacy levels among adults present a worrying trend. OECD’s 2023 PIAAC survey placed Singapore below the OECD average for adult literacy, particularly among workers aged 35 and above. Literacy levels were found to atrophy sharply after this age, exacerbated by over-reliance on digital shorthand and limited engagement with complex texts. For a nation reliant on human capital, how much of a risk does this decline pose to workforce adaptability in advanced industries?

Secondly, research consistently shows that teacher quality has a greater impact on student outcomes than class size. A McKinsey study of high-performing systems found that improving teacher effectiveness generates learning outcomes equivalent to adding three months of schooling—at a fraction of the cost of reducing class sizes. Singapore has made strides in this area, with institutions like the National Institute of Education (NIE) offering rigorous training programs. Yet concerns over teacher attrition and heavy workloads remain. OECD data shows that Singaporean teachers work an average of 46 hours weekly, well above global norms. Could raising salaries to match those in top-performing nations like Switzerland could attract and retain high-caliber educators, amplifying system-wide gains?

Thirdly, while Singapore’s adaptability remains a cornerstone of its success, the challenges posed by an aging workforce cannot be ignored. Since 2015, initiatives like SkillsFuture have helped over 660,000 citizens enhance their skills. However, Singapore ranks only 21st globally for workforce skills, according to the World Economic Forum. Bridging this gap calls for a stronger commitment to lifelong learning, with targeted investments and early interventions, including for those under 40. Beyond technical proficiency, should we consider efforts that focus on nurturing social dispositions vital for thriving in workplaces increasingly defined by teamwork and co-piloting with machines?

A pragmatic path forward

Fortunately, Singapore’s Ministry of Education (MOE) holds a mandate that extends beyond both the classroom and academic learning. Its mission involves nurturing lifelong learners capable of becoming better versions of themselves, while collectively enriching Singapore’s human capital – undeniably the nation’s greatest asset. This expansive remit empowers MOE to adopt a holistic approach to policy formulation, addressing the aspirations of Singaporeans at every stage of their life journey.

Against this backdrop, as the debate on education reform evolves, MOE’s focus must remain steadfastly on evidence-based strategies that deliver proven impact. For me, four priorities stand out:

1. Strengthening teacher quality: Teachers are the linchpins of educational success. Increasing their pay to global competitive levels, reducing workloads, and enhancing training opportunities—such as through the Science of Learning in Education Centre—will yield far greater returns than reducing class sizes.
2. Personalized learning pathways: Singapore can deepen its integration of AI-driven adaptive learning platforms to create tailored pathways for students of varying abilities. Finland’s Smart Learning Environments demonstrate how digital tools can narrow achievement gaps and enhance outcomes. Scaling MOE’s existing investments, such as the Singapore Student Learning Space (SLS), would ensure no child is left behind.
3. Building rigor in foundational literacies: Singapore must urgently address declining adult literacy. Programs like Germany’s Digital Pact for Schools provide a model for equipping mid-career professionals with the skills needed in a digital economy. Locally, nascent initiatives like Temus’ Step IT Up, which I am privileged to lead, highlight the transformative potential of mid-career upskilling. This program has helped 59 Singaporeans with no prior IT backgrounds transition into full-time technology roles, proving that strong foundational literacies can be revitalized with the right opportunity, learning agility, and motivation.
4. Industry Integration at Younger Ages: Introducing mastery-based, industry-relevant learning even as young as the secondary school level can better align education with emerging economic needs. Germany’s dual-education model and Switzerland’s vocational programs offer blueprints for integrating apprenticeships and classroom learning, preparing students to nurture their natural abilities early and seize the first-movers’ advantage in their fields of choice.

Conclusion: Equity, excellence, and tough choices

In ‘A Conflict of Visions’, economist Dr. Thomas Sowell acknowledges that all policy decisions involve trade-offs, and limited resources must be directed where they yield the greatest impact.

The ongoing rhetoric on class sizes is concerning because it betrays an “unconstrained vision,” prioritizing emotional appeals over practical solutions and competing agendas. The litmus test is: What would they cut to pay for this costly and limited intervention? Teacher wages and training? Lifelong learning programs? Digital literacy initiatives? It is easy to call for symbolic commitments, but rational and responsible policy recommendations involve making tough, pragmatic choices too. The evidence suggests that smaller class sizes are beneficial, but they are neither a cure-all nor a clear priority when weighed against these four other pressing needs in education reform.

Rooted in the nation’s founding democratic socialist ideals from the past 60 years or so, Singapore has always sought to balance equity with excellence, ensuring its education system empowers citizens to become their best selves while enjoying a home-ground advantage in an economy that inspires them to reach for the stars. The world is watching, learning, and evolving – and so must we.

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