Maybank Investment Bank said on Thursday that it was positively surprised by the lift in Grab’s guidance as tariff uncertainty has raised the risk of macro and forex volatility.

The research house said in a note that Grab raised its adjusted earnings before Interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) guidance from $440 million to $470 million to $460 million to $480 million.

“Our estimate at $481 million is already at the higher end of the guidance although
street is lower at $463 million and, as such, we see room for street to lift
estimates,” it said.

Grab’s management earlier noted that so far it has not seen any slowdown in the second quarter momentum returning as per expectations from seasonally soft first quarter levels.

Management sees its business model as counter cyclical wherein macro softness could lead to better driver supply/sign-ups which in turn leads to marketplace pricing
declines (lower surcharge).

On the demand side, focus is more on increasing the user base and frequency through more affordable products and services like batching, leveraging artificial intelligence (AI).

According to Maybank, Grab’s on-demand gross merchandise value (GMV), revenues and EBITDA increased 16 percent, 18 percent and 71 percent year on year, respectively, in the first quarter, coming in at 0 percent to 12 percent ahead of street and the research house estimates.

Grab delivered strong growth across segments with management seeing an anticipated pick-up in seasonally strong second quarter and limited risk of growth slowing amid tariff/macro uncertainty.

Its adjusted EBITDA guidance is raised on first quarter deliveries and more efficient regional costs.

The firm’s deliveries maintained strong momentum with GMV up 16 percent year on year and margins/GMV expanding by 40 basis points year on year to 2 percent.

Its GMV and adjusted EBITDA were 1 percent and 10 percent ahead of Maybank expectations.

While deliveries GMV dipped 3 percent quarter on quarter due to seasonality in food delivery, it was partially offset by superior GrabMart growth which management noted was a ‘star’ performer, said the research house.

“Slight consolidation in the delivery segment with FoodPanda exiting Thailand and
Deliveroo selling its operations to DoorDash should help to further ease competition,” it said.

Meanwhile, Maybank’s mobility likewise maintained its positive GMV trajectory, increasing 17 percent year on year while margins/GMV dipped year on year.

The management noted that the slight margin correction was to address affordability factors which in turn was paid back in the form of superior GMV and monthly transacting users (MTU) growth.

The firm’s loans in the financial services segment increased 56 percent year on year and 6 percent quarter on quarter with management seeing no concern on credit metrics.

Its financial services adjusted EBITDA loss deepened to $30 million (from $27 million in the fourth quarter of 2024) owing to frontloaded credit provisioning as it expands its Digibank loans.

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